2025 French Open Men's Single Final Thoughts

There is nothing particularly unique to say, and I don’t consider myself a tennis analyst or anything. But this is probably one of best tennis matches ever so I’ll share my thoughts. Funnily I was in a meeting my advisor during the second set and we had discussed this match and I said Sinner was probably going to win. At the conclusion of the meeting, my advisor had asked me who was leading and I said Sinner was up a break in the third and 2:0 up, and it was probably over. Well, that aged like milk for sure.

Spanning 5 hours and 29 mins, both players were able to sustain their level until the very end. Alcaraz beats Sinner 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(2). Alcaraz goes down 2 sets to 0, down an early break in 3rd, recovers to break Sinner, then saves 3 championship points on his serve in the 4th, immediately break Sinner again to take the 4th set in tiebreak, then up an early break in 5th, unable to serve out the match 5-4, then wins the deciding set tiebreak. If ATP is a reality TV show, you could not have scripted it any better. The final points won was 193-192 in favor of Sinner so this is as close as you can get.

Coming into the match I was rooting for Sinner mostly because he has an aggressive baseline playstyle similar to mine. The choke in 4th set after having 3 match points is not as bad as it looks because it was on Alcaraz’s serve. However, all three points were in play after serve, and although I felt it was mostly due to Alcaraz playing well, Undoubtly Sinner got tight after having match points, similar to the Aus Open 2024, where he had an uncharacteristic unforced error after having match point against Djokovic.

As soon as Sinner couldn’t close out the game on Alcaraz’s serve I knew it was probably over, and he got broken immediately next game because that’s just psychology unfortunately. However, I was very surprised to see the level Sinner produced in the 5th set, after being down an early break.

Here is some technical analysis on the match:

Sinner has the edge usually in BH to BH exchanges, however, today Alcaraz’s BH was on point and he was able to neutralize Sinner’s baseline strategy with a lot of variety (The BH pass on 6-5 5th set was probably one of the best). In crucial moments, his extra 10% clutchness on his FH delivered, Alcaraz has 15 extra winners with comparable amount of UE on his FH. I believe I saw a stat that for rallies that go beyond 6 shots, Alcaraz has the advantage. Despite the reputation Sinner has for the best baseline gameplay, he was not getting too much advantage in these rallies. I believe it was because while Sinner hits fast and deep, his angles are usually not amazing and Alcaraz was able to neutralize the pace on a lot of these shots with his movement and agility. On the other hand, Alcaraz has much better angle on his FH, which opens up the court more. For instance, when stretched to the forehand corner, Sinner tends to go for a cross-court winner, which puts him in a position unable to recover to the middle, something I also like to do. But against Alcaraz if that shot didn’t end up being a winner usually it’s over because Sinner is unable to recover for the backhand crosscourt or forehand down the line from Alcaraz. I think this is also the theme in the recent Rome final, where stats show that Alcaraz was able to “steal” more points in defensive positions. He was able to fend off and recover Sinner’s high-pace balls while the reverse isn’t true for Sinner when he was opened to the corners. This is potentially why Djokovic has had Alcaraz’s number recently yet struggled against Sinner. Djokovic is the best there ever was at making angle and change directions on balls from any position. If you hit a good angled FH or BH against Djokovic, he is just going to return by opening up even better angle (This is Nadal’s assessment in his Roddick Podcast). Sinner does not usually go for these angles, he is more of a linear power baseliner, whose shotmaking is flatter then that of Alcaraz. On the otherhand, Alcaraz’s angled FH has a lot of spin which, while lands short in the court (usually on service line), can open up opponent very effectively, which does not actually trouble Djokovic compared to the sheer pace of Sinner’s ballstriking (For instance the Olympic Final).

Sinner is now on a five-match losing strike against Alcaraz but is something like 46-3 against anyone else (I forgot the exact stat). However, the reverse is true dating back to 2023, where Alcaraz is generally the more consistent of the two but struggles in Sinner matchup. What changed? I think it’s because after Sinner becomes a top tier player around US open 2023, his shotmaking becomes more conservative and less erratic. He would now usually go for high-percentage shots that are aggressive with margin whereas he was more reckless in the past that tries to paint the lines more. This higher percentage tennis helps his consistency against the rest of the tour but unironically hurt his Alcaraz matchup.

This loss reminded me of the Caruana choke in last game of Chess Candidate 2024, both ironically Italian lol. However, for Sinner, I think this will be closer to 2007 Wimbledon for Nadal, then it is Wimbledon 2019 for Federer. While it was a disappointing result for him, he had pushed Alcaraz to the limit on a surface where he was largely unproven, when the latter was the favorite coming to the match.

On a sidenote, I think it’s kind of an interesting question, as to the strategy when having match points, whether you go for the lines or play it safe and wait for the error from opponent. Because theoretically the player down match points would not go for big shots because they would be pressured to play with margin. However, some may play looser and with nothing to lose mentality and go for riskier shots, Alcaraz being one of them. I think there is some sort of game-theoretic model here which very much depends on the player.